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skip to content andrew knowles' blog one rant at a time menu about blog travel scroll down to content posts posted on may 25, 2018 may 31, 2018 limiting migration: the conservatives’ broken promises the conservatives have been committed to significantly reducing migration since 2010 in january 2010, a few months before he would become elected as prime minister, david cameron said “ we would like to see net immigration in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds of thousands ” [1]. this pledge also made it into the conservatives’ manifesto [2]. of course, ‘tens of thousands’ could mean 99,000 a year, or it could mean as little as 10,000; as a statistic, it is fairly vague. the target was restated for their 2015 manifesto [3] and once again for last year’s snap election in june [4]. with anti-immigration sentiment now mainstream, the conservatives are clearly in no mood to budge from their new, ostensibly hardline, stance. net migration has remained far above the target of ‘tens of thousands’ in short: the conservatives have failed in their numerical pledge. figure 1 shows that net migration was actually higher in 2014 and 2015, when compared to 2010. between 2010 and 2016, the average yearly net migration figure was close to a quarter of a million, at just over 248,000. the yearly increases quickly add up to large numbers; figure 2 shows that since 2007 total net migration stands at around 2.7 million. from 2010 to 2017, the figure is about 1.9 million. it is undeniable that the uk is still experiencing significant inflows of migrants and we are a long way from the conservatives’ target. it is difficult to calculate by exactly how much the migration target has been missed. the maximum ‘tens of thousands’ yearly limit is, pedantically, 99,999 migrants. maxing out at this yearly limit between 2010-17 would have taken us to a net increase of just under 800,000, quite a bit less than the 1.9 million the uk actually welcomed. figure 1. yearly immigration, emigration and net migration to the uk, 2007-2016 (source: office for national statistics). *2017, year end september; other years ye in december figure 2. cumulative, year on year, net migration growth and yearly net migration. (source: office for national statistics). *2017, year end september; other years ye in december the official migration figures should be taken with a big pinch of salt; they are very, very rough estimates it is clear that based on the official numbers, the conservatives haven’t really made much of a dent. however it must be noted that, in reality, we have no idea what the real migration figures are. this is because, once you start to pick through the methodology underlying the headline figures, everything becomes much more uncertain. as the office for national statistics (ons) explains [5], the migration figures are mostly based on results from the international passenger survey (ips). the ips has been running continuously since 1961 and it collects information about passengers entering and leaving the uk. when you pass through international airports or go through the port of dover, you may have noticed small, often empty, desks with ‘office of national statistics’ stickers clinging to the front. it is at these innocuous looking desks where the ips survey is conducted and where staff clutching clipboards ask weary travelers about their plans. every year around 700,000-800,000 ips surveys are carried out. a subsample (around 250,000) of these is used to calculate the official migration flows. of all the ips surveys taken, approximately 4,000 people are identified as long term international migrants each year. that is: ‘ a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year’ . in other words: of the ~800,000 respondents only around 4,000 of them are non-uk citizens who state that they are intending to move to the uk for over 12 months (or say that they have lived here for over a year and are now emigrating). if this sounds like a rather inaccurate way of measuring migration flows, that’s because it is. the stated intentions (and honesty) of the respondents massively affect the end result. for example a polish electrician who answers an ips survey at dover might originally intend to leave after a few months, thus not being counted as a long-term migrant, but may end up staying indefinitely. national insurance number (nino) registrations comprehensive data exists for the allocations of ninos to adult overseas nationals. a major limitation is that the ninos do not expire and there is no requirement to de-register upon leaving the uk. therefore the nino numbers do not at all capture outwards migration. nevertheless, the high number of registrations indicates that huge numbers of people are arriving each year to register to work. figure 3 shows that the number of nino registrations runs far higher than the net migration seen in figure 1. between 2010 and 2015 alone, 4.1 million ninos were issued. figure 3. national insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the uk, eu and non-eu (source: department for work and pensions). * 2015 ye september, others ye december despite their failure to enforce the ‘tens of thousands’ target, the conservatives have implemented a number of significant policy changes in relation to migration perhaps the most important piece of legislation was the reintroduction of exit checks in april 2015, through the coalition’s immigration act 2014 [6]. exit checks had been scrapped entirely in 1998 meaning that for a period of 17 years there had been no effective way of checking whether visitors with time-limited visas had actually left the country. with their reintroduction, exit checks should in theory give a more comprehensive picture of the flow of migrants in and out of the country. another major change was the crackdown on bogus education institutions which were issuing student visas for non-existent or poor quality courses. in 2010 licences were revoked for around 900 further education colleges and this led to a decrease in over 50,000 students from india and pakistan within three years [7]. the number of study-related visa applications for further education institutions peaked at nearly 120,000 in june 2011 and this has since fallen to around 20,000 [8]. there was also a major issue with fraudulent english-language colleges. visa applications for these fell from 20,000 in 2011 to around 3,500 in 2014, after the fake language colleges had been closed down. these dramatic falls can be seen in figure 4. figure 4. study-related sponsored visa applications by sector (source: home office ) conclusion the conservatives have completely failed to bring down immigration levels to the ‘tens of thousands’. however, they have enacted a number of significant policy changes, in particular with their crack-down on fraudulent student visas. if they are serious about their manifesto pledge(s) then further policies need to be enacted. with the reintroduction of exit checks the home office should finally be able to provide accurate statistics about long-term migration flows, ending our reliance on the international passenger survey. [1] the guardian, tories would limit immigration to ‘tens of thousands’ a year, says cameron . see https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/11/david-cameron-limit-immigration (accessed 27/02/18) [2] conservatives, the conservative manifesto 2010, https://www.conservatives.com/~/media/files/manifesto2010 [3] the guardian, conservatives election manifesto 2015 – the key points , see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/conservatives-election-manifesto-2015-the-key-points (accessed 27/02/18) [4] bbc news, conservative manifesto summary: key points at-a-glance . seehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39960311 (accessed 27/02/18) [5] office for national statistics, long-term international migration estimates methodology . see https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop

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